Analyst who called the 2022 crypto crash warns of new ‘black swan’

The pseudonymous crypto trader “Capo of Crypto”, known among retail traders for correctly predicting the 2022 capitulation, says this week’s carnage may be only the opening act.

In a new market note on Oct. 11, Capo warned that the Oct. 10 crash is a “pre–Black Swan event,” arguing that altcoins have suffered “historic capitulation,” yet several majors “still haven’t fully flushed.”

He added that while Bitcoin (BTC) remains above $100,000, that level “is far from the $60,000 to $70,000 area that would align with a complete correction,” implying that “downside potential remains significant” before a durable base forms.

Related: Over $19 billion liquidated in worst crypto crash since COVID

Capo’s warning comes amid a violent macro shock, as Donald Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on China triggered a sweeping risk-off move.

Bitcoin wicked as low as $102,000 on one major futures pair, while spot markets briefly slipped under $110,000. Major altcoins including Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), XRP and Dogecoin (DOGE) cratered between 15% and 30% as over $7 billion in leveraged longs were liquidated within hours.

On Oct. 10, Trump wrote on Truth Social:

“It has just been learned that China has taken an extraordinarily aggressive position on Trade in sending an extremely hostile letter to the World, stating that they were going to, effective November 1, 2025, impose large-scale Export Controls on virtually every product they make.”

Capo believes the “wicks should eventually be filled,” suggesting that prices could revisit the flash-crash lows once traditional markets reopen and reassess the tariff path.

He also flagged “structural cracks” in legacy markets that, under the wrong conditions, could trigger “short-lived global disruptions that shake confidence in core systems — a reset before the next phase begins.”

In simpler words, 100% tariffs on China made global investors panic about higher costs, slower trade, and weaker growth. That kind of news pushes money out of risky assets like crypto and stocks and into safer ones like the U.S. dollar or bonds.

As traders rushed to sell, Bitcoin and altcoins crashed hard, especially since many investors were using leverage (borrowed money). Those forced liquidations made prices fall even faster, turning a normal sell-off into a full-blown crypto market crash.

In the near term, he expects a “brief consolidation over the weekend,” followed by “more downside” as liquidity returns next week.

A “black swan” event refers to an unexpected, high-impact occurrence that catches markets off guard, such as the 2008 financial crisis, the 2020 COVID crash, or FTX’s collapse, often triggering widespread panic and volatility.

For the uniniated, Capo of Crypto is a pseudonymous market analyst and trader known for his bearish macro calls. Capo’s credibility among traders stems from his 2022 bear-market calls, during the FTX collapse, he publicly predicted a BTC capitulation zone in the $13,000 to $14,000 range and warned of a final “nuke” in altcoins, both of which materialized.

Related: Whale bags $160M by shorting ahead of Trump’s China tariff

On the morning of Oct. 11 (ET) 9 A.M, total crypto market capitalization hovered around $3.86 trillion, up modestly from intraday lows but still nursing a 24-hour drawdown. Bitcoin clawed back to the low $110,000s, while Ether rebounded to the mid $3,800s.

According to CoinGlass data, over $19.3 billion in crypto positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, one of the largest wipeouts on record, as nearly 1.67 million traders were forced out. Longs made up over 85% of the losses, led by Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).

This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Oct 11, 2025, where it first appeared in the Business News section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.